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FxWirePro: USD/JPY holds major trendline support at 100.05, good to short break below

  • As widely expected, the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25-0.50%.
     
  • Growing support was seen in the hawkish block of the Fed,  showing that momentum for a hike is building.
     
  • Esther George (Kansas City) who has become the most visible hawk this year, has been joined by Loretta Mester (Cleveland) and Eric Rosengren (Boston).
     
  • Yellen’s press conference was also seen preparing the markets for a hike later this year, however, rate path has become more gradual than before.
     
  • Although Yellen stressed the Fed’s independence of partisan politics, hike before Election Day (Nov 8) may evoke political repercussions, which the Fed can ill afford.
     
  • This makes December the most likely outcome for the next hike.
     
  • US dollar continues to weakness in light of disappointing FOMC statement, resumed weakness in early Europe.
     
  • USD/JPY trading a narrow range, downside holds major trendline support at 100.05.
     
  • Techs are bearish, break below 100.05 likely to see test of 98.78 levels.
     
  • Major support levels - 100.05 (trendline), 100, 99.54 (Aug 16 low), 98.78 (June 24 low)
     
  • Major resistance levels - 100.93 (Aug 22 high), 101, 101.52 (trendline), 102, 102.23 (20-DMA)

Recommendation - Good to sell rallies around 100.35/40, SL: 101, TP: 99.54/ 99/ 98.80
 

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