• USD/JPY firmed on Thursday as the dollar strengthened on solid US economic data and surprise hawkish signals from the Fed.
• The Fed minutes indicated that policymakers were split on the future path of U.S. interest rates, suggesting the next chair, set to take office in May, may face challenges in advancing rate cuts..
• The minutes noted that several policymakers expect productivity improvements to help ease inflation. However, “most participants” warned that progress could be gradual and uneven, with some even signaling that rate hikes may be considered if inflation remains above target..
• Meanwhile, Japan’s core machinery orders rose sharply by 19.1% month-on-month to ¥1,052.5 billion in December 2025, bouncing back from November’s 11% contraction and well above forecasts for a 4.5% gain.
• Markets are looking ahead to global purchasing managers' index figures and U.S. gross domestic product data, due on Friday.
• Immediate resistance is located at 156.56 (38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 157.32 (Higher BB).
• Support is seen at 154.53 (50%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 153.10 (Feb 19th low)
Recommendation: Good to buy around 155.10, with stop loss of 154.00 and target price of 155.70
