• USD/JPY traded in a narrow range on Monday as traders awaited Tuesday’s key U.S. CPI release.
• Focus this week is on U.S. consumer price data due Tuesday, with analysts expecting tariff effects to lift core CPI by 0.3% for the month, pushing the annual rate to 3.0% and further above the Fed’s 2% target.
• Analysts forecast that consumer prices in July rose 2.8% from a year earlier, indicating a moderate pace of inflation.
• Market expectations for Fed rate cuts increased after weak jobs data, as investors anticipate the central bank will ease policy to support the labor market..
• Fed funds futures show over a 90% probability of a rate cut at the September meeting, with at least two cuts priced in for this year.
• Immediate resistance is located at 148.05(SMA 20 ), any close above will push the pair towards 149.55(61.8%fib).
• Support is seen at 146.73(50%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 145.41(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 147.30, with stop loss of 146.60 and target price of 148.00
