USDCHF lost its shine on board based US dollar's weakness. It formed a double top around 1.00735 and declined more than 100 pips. The policy divergence between the US fed and SNB supports the US dollar at lower levels. The US 10-year yield recovered above 4% after a minor decline in tandem with UK gilts. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -44 basis points from -57 bpbs.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 75 bpbs rate hike in Nov rose to 97.4% from 81.10% a week ago.
Technically in the 4-hour chart, the pair is holding below short-term (21- and 55 EMA) and above 200 EMA (0.9826). Any break below 0.9900 will take the pair to 0.9825/0.9780. USDCHF had an intraday low of 0.99187 and is currently trading around 0.99319.
The near-term resistance is around 0.9965 and any breach above targets is 1/1.0075/1.0125.
Indicators (4-hour chart)
CCI (50)- Bearish
ADX- Neutral
It is good to sell on rallies around 0.9965 with SL around 1 for a TP of 0.9855.
