USDCHF was one of the worst performers the previous week and lost more than $500 pips. The weak consumer price and ISM manufacturing and services index dragged the US dollar down. The chance of an aggressive rate hike by the Fed diminished after weak US CPI data. USDCHF hits an intraday high of 0.9485 and is currently trading around 0.94748.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 50 bpbs rate hike in Dec increased to 85.4% from 48% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield lost more than 10% after hitting a high of 4.244%. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -49 basis points from -67 bpbs.
Technically in the daily chart, the pair is holding below short-term (21 and 55 EMA) and long-term 200 EMA (0.9640). Any break below 0.9380 confirms further bearishness; a dip to 0.9300/0.9195 is possible.
The near-term resistance is around 0.9550 and any breach above targets is 0.9600/0.9660. Significant trend reversal only if it breaks 1.0150.
Indicators (Daily chart)
CCI (50) - Bearish
ADX- Bearish
It is good to sell on rallies around 0.9550-0.95525 with SL around 0.9600 for the TP of 0.9400.
