USDCHF pared some of its gains after a minor pullback to 0.94754. The Pair was one of the worst performers in the past 10 days on board-based US dollar weakness. Hawkish comments from the Swiss National bank and the escalation of geo-political tension between Russia and Ukraine support the Swiss franc. US annual PPI declined to 8% in Oct, below the forecast of 8.3%. NY Fed manufacturing index urged to 4.5 in Nov vs -5 expected. USDCHF hits an intraday high of 0.9485 and is currently trading around 0.94748.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 50 bpbs rate hike in Dec increased to 80.6% from 56.8% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield lost more than 10% after hitting a high of 4.244%. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -57 basis points from -48.5 bpbs.
Technically in the daily chart, the pair is holding below short-term (21 and 55 EMA) and long-term 200 EMA (0.93685). Any break below 0.9375 confirms further bearishness; a dip to 0.9300/0.9195 is possible.
The near-term resistance is around 0.9480 and any breach above targets is 0.9550/0.9600/0.9660. Significant trend reversal only if it breaks 1.0150.
Indicators (4 Hour chart)
CCI (50) - Bearish
ADX- Bearish
It is good to sell on rallies around 0.9480-825 with SL around 0.9550 for the TP of 0.9370.
