FxWirePro- USDCHF Daily Outlook

USDCHF halted its uptrend and lost nearly 100 pips on board-based US dollar selling. The pair gained momentum during the first half of the previous week due to upbeat US economic data. The inflation and US retail sales that came above expectations have increased the chance of further rate hikes by the Fed. It hits an intraday low of 0.92354 and is currently trading around 0.92456.

 According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in Feb 2023 rose to 84.9% from 81.90% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield pared some of its gains made this week ahead of FOMC meeting minutes. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -80 basis points from -88% bpbs.

 Technically in the 4-hour chart, the pair is holding above short-term (21  and 55 EMA) and above long-term 200 EMA (0.92445). Any break below 0.9230 confirms further bearishness, a dip to 0.9200/0.91345 is possible.

 The near-term resistance is around 0.92650 and any breach above targets is 0.9300/0.9360. Significant bullish continuation only if it breaks 0.9600.  

Indicators (4-hour chart)

CCI (50)- Bearish

ADX- Neutral

It is good to sell on rallies around 0.92750-80 with SL around 0.93200 for the TP of 0.9150.