• NZD/USD dipped after RBNZ held cash rates steady and said policy would likely stay accommodative for some time
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates at 2.25% as expected, expressing confidence inflation will return to target and policy will gradually normalize.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s OCR track shows the cash rate at 2.38% by year-end, indicating a possible rate hike, Governor Breman said.
• Attention now shifts to fourth-quarter inflation data due Friday, with upside risks in focus. A Reuters poll forecasts a 0.5% quarterly rise, keeping annual inflation at 3%, the top of the central bank’s 1%–3% target range.
• Markets are pricing in almost no chance of a rate hike at the RBNZ’s February 18 meeting, with the next move not expected until July, where the odds are just over 50%.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.6018(SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 0.6080(23.6%fib).
•Support is seen at 0.5960(38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5939 (Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.6000 with stop loss of 0.6100 and target price of 0.5900
