GBP/JPY Stumbles on Yen Strength: Bears Target 195 as Fed Cut Bets Soar

The GBP/JPY pared most of its gains on the strong yen. It hit a low of  195.34 and is currently trading around 196.52. Intraday trend is bearish as long as the resistance at 198.45 holds.

While steep downward revisions to May and June reduced prior gains by a total of 258,000 jobs, July's US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 73,000, far below the 110,000 forecast. The jobless rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, with hiring mostly in health care (+55,000) and social support (+18,000) even as federal employment dropped 12,000; average hourly earnings rose 0.3% to $36.44. Investors stepped up bets to around a 95% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, highlighting a cooling labor market and altering monetary policy expectations toward easing, which sent the dollar tumbling—its biggest one-day fall against the euro and yen since April.

The GBP/JPY pair is trading below  55 and  above 200 EMA (Short-term) and 365 EMA (long-term) on the 4-hour chart, confirming a weak trend.  Any violation below 196 indicates the intraday trend is weak. A dip to 195.25/194/191.95/190 is possible.  Immediate resistance is at 196.75, a breach above this level targets of 197.35/198/198.85/199.30/200/202/204.

Market Indicators (4-hour chart)

CCI (50)- Bearish

Directional movement index - Bearish

Trading Strategy:  Sell

 
 It Is good to sell on rallies around 197 with SL around 198 for a TP of 194.85/194.