The GBP/JPY showed a minor sell-off due to the strong yen.It hit a low of 197.80 yesterday and is currently trading around 198.43 The Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) is identified at 200.20, and the pair has gained over 800 pips this month.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is unlikely to raise interest rates soon due to several factors affecting its monetary policy. While inflation has increased to between 2.5% and 3.0%, the BoJ believes expectations are stabilizing, allowing for a cautious approach. The central bank has already raised its short-term policy rate twice in 2024 to 0.25% but is in no rush to implement further increases. Additionally, while Japan's economy shows signs of moderate recovery, flat exports and industrial production indicate ongoing challenges that require careful monitoring.
In October 2024, Japan's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 36.2, down from 36.9 in September, marking a decline of 0.7 points. This drop was below market expectations, which had anticipated a rise to 37.
Technical Overview:
- The GBP/JPY is above short-term and long-term moving averages, indicating a bullish trend.
- Immediate resistance is at 200.20; if broken, it could rise toward 201.85/203.
- Support is at 198.87, with potential drops to 198.25/197.37, 196, or 195.40 if this level fails.
Indicator Analysis:
- CCI - is bullish and ADX - neutral. Both show mixed trends.
Trading Recommendation: Consider selling if the price approaches 200, with a stop loss of around 202 and aiming for a profit target of 196.
