GBPJPY Sinks as UK Jobs Data Signals Economic Woes and Bearish Trend Persists

GBPJPY lost its shine after dismal UK jobs data. Intraday trend remains bearish as long as the resistance at 203.60 holds. Trading around 201.576 right now, the pair reached an intraday low of 201.33.

With unemployment increasing to 4.8% in the three months to August 2025—the highest since May 2021—the UK labor market is struggling. Up from 4.7% last quarter and 4.1% a year ago, 1.7 million people are now out of work. The claimant count jumped 25.8 thousand in September to 1.692 million, 23.7% over pre-pandemic levels; job vacancies dropped 1.3% to 717,000, representing 39 straight quarters of decrease. Wage growth stalled, with public sector salaries at 6.0%, regular earnings at 4.7%, and private sector pay at 4.4%, the lowest since late 2021. After inflation adjustments, real wage growth is still sluggish at 0.6–1.2%. Employment indicators show a 0.3% year-on-year decrease in payrolled employees alongside a 21.0% economic inactivity rate. These trends, together with sluggish growth and high inflation, are driving expectations for Bank of England rate decreases as companies postpone recruitment in light of ambiguity about the Labour government's approaching budget.

Oscillators and moving averages to forecast the trend of GBPJPY

CMP- 201.55

EMA (1-hour chart)

55-EMA- 202.89

200-EMA- 202.30

365-EMA-  201.52. The pair trades below the short and long-term moving averages.

Major Support- 201. Any breach below will drag the pair down to 200/199/198.

Major resistance - 202.  Any break above 202 confirms minor bullishness; a jump to  202.60/203.55/204.20 is possible.

Indicator (1-hour chart)

CCI (50)-  Bearish

Average directional movement Index-  Bearish. All indicators confirm a bearish trend.

It is good to sell on rallies around 202.48-50 with SL around 203.55 for TP of 200.