GBPJPY Wavers After UK Inflation Holds at 3.8%: Rate Cut Looms as Bullish Trend Persists

GBPJPY pared most of its gains after the UK CPI data. Intraday trend remains bullish as long as support 201.30 holds. Trading around 202.22 right now, the pair reached an intraday low of 202.246.

UK inflation held steady at 3.8% in September 2025, slightly below market expectations, marking the third consecutive month at this rate and the highest since January 2024. While core inflation and price increases in areas like food, housing, recreation, and communications eased, services inflation remained high, mainly due to rising transport costs. The softer inflation figures led to a small drop in the pound and increased speculation about a potential Bank of England rate cut in December, while also giving the government more flexibility ahead of the upcoming budget. Overall, the data points to moderating price pressures, though food prices remain elevated due to extreme weather.

Oscillators and moving averages to forecast the trend of GBPJPY

CMP- 202.26

EMA (4-hour chart)

55-EMA- 202.32

200-EMA- 201.02

365-EMA- 199.97. The pair trades above the short and above long-term moving average.

Major Support- 202. Any breach below will drag the pair down 201.30/ 200/199.30/198.34/197.40.

Major resistance - 202.50.  Any break above confirms minor bullishness; a jump to  203/203.55/204.20/205/205.35/206 is possible.

Indicator (4-hour chart)

CCI (50)-  Bullish

Average directional movement Index-  Neutral. All indicators confirm a bearish trend.

It is good to buy on dips around 201.78-80 with SL around 201.30 for TP of 204/205.