Galp Shares Fall After Q2 EBITDA Miss Despite Profit Beat and Higher Dividend

Portuguese energy company Galp Energia (ELI:GALP) saw its shares fall more than 3% on Monday after reporting second-quarter earnings that showed weaker-than-expected EBITDA, despite beating analyst forecasts for net income and announcing a higher dividend.

Galp posted second-quarter net income of €540 million, exceeding the €489 million median and €494 million average analyst estimates compiled by the company. However, group replacement cost adjusted (RCA) EBITDA came in at €1.27 billion, slightly below the €1.28 billion consensus estimate from Visible Alpha, disappointing investors.

Jefferies analysts said the stronger net income and nearly 20% outperformance in operating cash flow were largely driven by lower tax rates. The brokerage noted that the EBITDA shortfall stemmed mainly from the Upstream division, where EBITDA reached €700 million, around 6% below expectations due to the downward revaluation of underlifting positions at the end of the quarter.

The weaker upstream performance was partially offset by stronger results in other businesses. Industrial & Midstream EBITDA totaled €458 million, beating forecasts by roughly 7%, supported by accounting lag effects in oil supply pricing worth more than €50 million. Commercial EBITDA reached €113 million, surpassing expectations by about 10% on stronger business-to-business activity across Iberia and improving consumer performance in Spain.

Galp’s board proposed a 10% increase in its 2026 dividend to €0.70 per share, with an interim payment of €0.35scheduled for August. Jefferies described the dividend increase as better than expected while noting that Galp’s updated 2026 guidance, including RCA EBITDA of around €4 billion and operating cash flow of approximately €3 billion, remained broadly in line with market forecasts.

Net debt rose modestly by €31 million from the previous quarter to €1.38 billion, mainly due to investments, dividend payments, and share buybacks. Galp also expanded its renewable energy portfolio through acquisitions of operational wind assets in Spain totaling 712 megawatts, increasing its installed renewable capacity to 2.7 gigawatts, with wind accounting for roughly 30% of the portfolio.

Co-CEOs Maria João Carioca and João Marques da Silva said discussions with Moeve shareholders continue to progress, while the company advances the Bacalhau project and prepares to launch its next exploration and appraisal campaign in Namibia’s Mopane area during the fourth quarter.