German Election: Betting market convinced of Angela Merkel’s win in election next month

The Federal election in Germany will be held next month, on September 24th. While the Social Democratic Party (SPD) candidate Martin Schultz made sizable gains in the polls published earlier in the year, the betting market is fully convinced of a victory by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) candidate Angela Merkel.

• The betting market is currently pricing 86 percent chance that Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party Christian Social Union (CSU) will win the majority of the seats in next month’s election.
• The betting market is also pricing only 15 percent chance that the challenging candidate Martin Schultz would become the next chancellor of Germany. It is pricing more than 80 percent chance the incumbent candidate Angela Merkel would win and become Germany’s longest serving chancellor.

The latest poll also remains in favor Angela Merkel. A poll conducted between 28th July and 31st July by INSA shows that Merkel’s CDU/CSU is likely to win 37 percent of the votes, while her closest rival SPD will win 24 percent of the votes.