German, French final HICP inflation in June likely stayed same as flash estimate

Germany final HICP inflation is unlikely to show any changes from its flash estimate. The final HICP inflation is expected to come in at 0.2 percent year-on-year, noted Societe General, confirming the flash estimate. The German national CPI is also expected to be confirmed at 0.3 percent year-on-year, added Societe Generale.

The flash estimate had showed that the energy component, in the headline CPI, came in weak at -6.4 percent year-on-year, as compared with -7.9 percent year-on-year in May. Meanwhile, the food prices rebounded slightly to 0.1 percent year-on-year following weak prints in the earlier two months.

According to Destatis press release, the core CPI inflation continued to be stable at 1.3 percent year-on-year as acceleration in services inflation of 1.4 percent y/y was countered by lower non-energy industrial goods prices.

Meanwhile, the final HICP inflation for France is also likely to have remained unchanged from the flash estimate of 0.3 percent year-on-year in June, according to Societe Generale. This is the highest rate since January 2016.

Moreover, the national CPI measure is expected to be confirmed too at 0.2 percent year-on-year. The year-on-year rise is due to rebounding petroleum products’ prices, the fourth straight rise.

According to the flash estimate, energy component came in an -3.1 percent year-on-year in June, lesser annual decline from -5.7 percent year-on-year in May. Food prices, which were impacted by the seasonal drop in fresh foodstuffs’ prices, rise 0.6 percent year-on-year.

Amongst other components, services inflation remained steady at 1 percent year-on-year, whereas manufactured products prices rebounded two ticks to -0.4 percent year-on-year.