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Germany could emerge as one of the unexpected beneficiaries of planned U.S. port fees targeting merchant ships built in China, with exports to the United States projected to increase by about 2%, according to a study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) reviewed by Reuters on Wednesday.
The report suggests Germany is better positioned than several global competitors because its shipping fleet relies less on Chinese-built vessels. That advantage could lower the impact of the new U.S. charges on German exporters, allowing them to capture additional market share as other countries face higher transportation costs.
The U.S. government is expected to implement the port fees starting in November as part of its broader strategy to reduce China's dominance in the global shipbuilding industry. Washington has argued that China's growing control over commercial ship production poses national security risks. Under the proposed policy, fees will be determined by where a vessel was built rather than the ownership of the cargo being transported.
Despite Germany's projected gains, DIW economists warned that the policy would likely have a broader negative impact on the U.S. economy. The institute estimates that U.S. imports could decline by 0.2%, while exports may fall by 0.3% as businesses face higher shipping costs and increased prices for imported intermediate goods.
"The mechanism is simple," DIW economist Sonali Chowdhry said. Higher transport costs raise production expenses, reducing the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers and slowing economic activity, which in turn weakens demand for imported products.
The study also forecasts significant losses for several U.S. trading partners. Within the European Union, Finland is expected to suffer the largest decline, with exports to the U.S. falling by around 5%, followed by Denmark at 4.4% and Poland at 3%.
Among emerging markets, Costa Rica, Vietnam, and Pakistan could each experience export declines approaching 9% due to their greater dependence on Chinese-built vessels. South Korea, however, is projected to benefit alongside Germany, with exports to the U.S. expected to rise by roughly 2% as global trade flows adjust to the new shipping policy.
