Global Geopolitical Series: Key updates from across the world

Here are some key events to keep a tab on,

• Russia-U.S. - Syria: The United States has warned Damascus and Moscow that it views any military assault on Syria's last rebel-held province in coming days as an escalation of the seven-year Syrian civil war. The warning from U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on August 31 came as rebels in Syria's Idlib province bordering Turkey blew up bridges and dug trenches in preparation for an all-out government assault promised by the leaders of both Syria and Russia, which is providing air support for Syrian ground forces. It is not clear at this point, why the United States is opposed to an attack on Idlib when it allowed pro-Assad forces to retake the rest of the territories held by rebels. 
   
• Iraq: Iraq has denied a Reuters’ report that Iran has moved its missiles in Iraq, which puts Israel in the range of the missiles. Israel has vowed to take down any missiles operating from Iraq.
   
• Korean Peninsula: The effect of the peace prospect continues. In the latest move, a unified Korean basketball team has won a silver medal in Asiad games.  However, tensions are once again escalating as the U.S. President abruptly called off U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Pyongyang citing lack of progress towards denuclearization. Insiders suggest that North Korea remains eager to continue the momentum in talks and the September summit between South Korean president Moon Jae in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could speed up the process of denuclearization.
   
• Palestine - Israel: After intense firefighting, airstrikes and rocket fires along the Gaza border, Israel is inching closer in forging a truce agreement with Hamas over the Gaza strip. Senior PA leaders have blasted the move by calling it an attempt to bring about a division between Gaza and West Bank. As the Palestinian Authority (PA) leaders heightened the harsh rhetoric, President Trump of the United States has called of as much as $200 million aid to PA.  President Trump has also reportedly revived the confederation idea between Jordan and the West Bank, which was initially proposed by King Hussain of Jordan and Yasser Arafat, the PA President. The plan was abandoned by Jordan in 1988.
   
• Turkey-United States: The relations have taken a turn for the worse, as President Trump has imposed sanctions against Turkey's justice and interior ministers due to the detention of an American pastor. In response to the U.S. sanctions, Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan ordered the authorities to freeze assets of America’s justice and interior minister. However, it is unclear who that would affect, due to differing Cabinet roles in the United States than in Turkey, or if the U.S. officials even have any holdings in Turkey. President Trump has doubled the metal tariffs on Turkey citing sharp currency declines. And Erdogan responded by increasing tariffs on several U.S. goods including iPhone. Turkey is trying to warm up to Russia, and the European Union amid diplomatic crisis with the United States. In the latest move, defiant Turkey has announced that it would move ahead with the decision to purchase Russian made S400 missile defense systems, despite being a NATO ally to the United States and despite NATO’s opposition.
   
• Trade war: President Trump has toughened his trade rhetoric towards China and Canada, after reaching an agreement with Mexico on NAFTA but not with Canada.   
   
• Saudi Arabia- Canada: Saudi Arabia has severed economic and diplomatic ties with Canada in response to Canada’s criticism of Saudi Arabia’s handling and capture of activists. Saudi Arabia ordered the expulsion of the Canadian ambassador and the halting of all new trade and investment deals between the two countries after Canada said it was gravely concerned about the recent arrests of Saudi civil society and women’s rights activists. It has also called back its diplomats from Canada. Saudi Arabia has suspended flights to Toronto as the escalation is showing no signs of abating. However, in the latest move, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced last week that Canada is engaging diplomatically with Saudi Arabia to resolve the dispute, however, no reports of any breakthrough yet.
   
• Cyprus crisis: New natural gas discoveries have left a divided Cyprus in the middle of a worsening geopolitical storm in the Eastern Mediterranean. Cyprus has once again taken center stage in the geopolitical debates surrounding the Eastern Mediterranean, fueled by vivid discussions of possible new resource wars in the region, and the evolving role of Turkey. Cyprus struck gas, twice: in 2011 and in 2018. The Cyprus peace talks, led by the UN, collapsed dramatically in 2017 and left the international community in a state of pessimism regarding a possible reunification of the island. Turkey decided to play a more assertive role in the regional energy game. The negotiations are still on with no breakthrough yet.