Global Geopolitical Series: Will U.S. soften and Russia blink on IMF treaty?

The Trump administration has yet again shot another round of threat diplomacy and this time at Russia. Another treaty is at stake now.

Speaking to the foreign ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the U.S. Secretary Mike Pompeo announced that United States is ready to start process of exiting the Intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) treaty that was signed by President Ronald Reagan and General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev back in 1987, which was later ratified by both Russia (former the Soviet Union) and the United States within a year. Mr. Pompeo announced that the United States would leave the treaty, which has been a cornerstone of the global arms control and stability, in the next 60 days, unless Russia, which allegedly violating the treaty, returns to full and verifiable compliance.

Mr. Pompeo added, “When we set forth our commitments, we agree to be bound by them. We expect the same of our treaty counterparts everywhere and we will hold them accountable when their words prove untrustworthy”. But these comments are in stark Contrast to the action of his boss, who has already moved the United States away from two international agreements, reached upon by his predecessor; Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA) and Paris Climate Accord.

Both the sides have long accused each other of violating the treaty. But, for the first time in many years, an opportunity is being created where once again an arms control around the globe can be achieved.

But to get there, the United States needs to soften its stance and negotiate respectfully with Russia, and for Russia, it would need to blink to make a treaty with Trump even a win-win one. Good news is that for now, the two sides have agreed to negotiate. But, with the first round of talks failing with Mike Pompeo visiting Moscow and meeting with the president, the question remains - will Russia blink this time?