Gold Pares Gains: Ukraine Conflict and Shifting Fed Odds in Focus

Gold pared some of its gains due to profit booking. It hit a high of $3392 and is currently trading around $3362.58.

The Russia-Ukraine war is still in its fourth year as of June 2025, with modest front-line changes but large military and civilian casualties resulting in 10.6 million displaced Ukrainians. Economically, Russia is experiencing slowing GDP growth, high inflation, and damage to its private sector as a result of militarization, sanctions, and lack of foreign investment; meanwhile, Ukraine's economy has contracted greatly since 2022 and is dealing with a large budget deficit and extensive destruction, although moderate growth is projected in 2025. Particularly impacting countries with strong links to Russia, the conflict increases food instability and price volatility in energy and food globally, therefore altering both economies fundamentally and presenting long-term rebuilding and repair issues without any quick fix.

Shifting Rate Hike Expectations

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause on the June 18th, 2025 meeting have decreased to 95.30% from 97.90% a week ago.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
 
Gold prices are holding above short-term moving averages 34 EMA and above 55 EMA and long-term moving averages (200 EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3350 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3335/$3300/$3270/$3245/$3230/$3200/$3165/$3135/$3100/$3000. The near-term resistance is at $3400 with potential price targets at $3415/$3465/$3500.

It is good to buy on dips around $3328-30 with a stop-loss at $3300 for a target price of $3385.