Gold Under Pressure as Strong US Jobs Report Boosts Rate Pause Expectations

Gold lost its shine after upbeat US jobs data. It hits an intraday low of $3311 and is currently trading around $3323.

The June 2025 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report demonstrated notable strength in the labor market, with 147,000 jobs added, substantially surpassing the consensus estimate of 110,000. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, compared to May’s 4.2%. Although wage growth remained somewhat muted—average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, both slightly below expectations—the data overall reflects a resilient employment landscape. The combination of robust job creation and a modest decline in unemployment suggests ongoing stability in the labor sector, even as subtle indicators point to a gradual moderation in wage growth.

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause in the Jul 30th 2025, meeting have increased to 93.30% from 79.30% a week ago.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
 
Gold prices are holding below the short-term moving averages, 34 EMA and  55 EMA, and above the long-term moving averages (200 EMA) on the 1-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3300, and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3245/$3200. The near-term resistance is at $3330 with potential price targets at $3350/$3385/$3400/43420$3450/$3475/$3500/$3550.

It is good to buy on dips around $3300 with a stop-loss at $3274 for a target price of $3385/$3400.