Gold's Rally Fades: Selling Opportunity on Trade Optimism?

Gold pared most of its gains as trade tension eased. It hit a low of $3235 yesterday and is currently trading around $3240.

The March 2025 US Core PCE Price Index was unchanged from month to month (0.0%), below the 0.1% consensus estimate, and year-over-year 2.6%, below last February's 3.0% and to expectations and lowest year-over-year gain since March 2021. The headline PCE Price Index also was unchanged month to month (0.0%) and year-over-year 2.3%. As the Fed's go-to indicator, the report demonstrates slackening of underlying inflation pressures despite consumer spending picking up.

Rate Cut Expectations on the Rise

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a 25 bpbs rate cut on the June 18th, 2025 meeting have increased to 64.20% from 55.50% a week ago.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy

Gold prices are holding below short-term moving averages 34 EMA and 55 EMA and above long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the one-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3230 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3200/$3168/$3100/$3000. The near-term resistance is at $3251 with potential price targets at $3262/$3270/$3282/$3300.

It is good to sell on rallies around $3248-50  with a stop-loss at $3270 for a target price of $3167.