Greece referendum and next steps

The official projections are out; with 70% of votes counted, the 'no' vote looks to have achieved a comfortable majority (>60%).

The Greek authorities have indicated a desire to re-start negotiations on a third programme as soon as possible. However, the efficacy of these discussions will depend crucially on the negotiating line taken after the referendum. 

"We see a risk that the government will overestimate its bargaining power on the back of the strong 'no' outcome", says RBC Capital Markets.

Much will also depend on the immediate reaction from European leaders and the ECB. The latter is particularly one to watch, though the Governing Council will want to take stock of the political negotiations before taking any decision on emergency liquidity assistance for the Greek banking sector.

In a normal referendum the next steps would be binary--something happens or it doesn't. But this is no ordinary referendum. The government and creditors will have to start negotiations on a third programme (since the second one expired on Tuesday). Both sides indicated they were willing to do so even in the event of a 'no'.