Higher oil prices and Greece concerns to have weighed on euro-zone activity

The euro-zone composite PMI may have nudged down in May, as the partial rebound in oil prices and concerns about Greece weighed on activity. The composite PMI fell for the first time in five months in April. 

Admittedly, at 53.9, it remained marginally higher than Q1's average of 53.3. But there are reasons to think that it might have fallen again in May. So far this month, oil prices in euro terms have been 6% higher than their April average. And concerns about Greece's future in the euro-zone have grown. What's more, the timelier Sentix Investor Sentiment Index, which has a decent relationship with the composite PMI, edged lower from 20.0 to 19.7 in May.

Accordingly, the composite PMI probably fell slightly in May to around 53.5. "On the basis of past form, this would point to quarterly GDP growth of about 0.4%, the same as in Q1", says Capital Economics.