How will the UK Election Affect Brexit?

The Brexit was programmed to begin negotiations on mid-June, but the quick elections programmed by Theresa May have backfired and weakened her position in power. What will happen in the next few days?

May decided to take the Brexit voting process back in March 29th. A month later she decided to call for a snap election believing the people would back-up her administration. Instead she now finds herself as the Prime Minister but with diminished power. Humiliated and with credibility lost by her lack of response to homeland security and comparisons with the un-popular Donald Trump she is now forced to commit to her word and continue the Brexit talks with a weakened negotiating power.

What’s next?

The EU negotiating team are pushing to keep meetings as scheduled with no delays. It begins this week with several informal talks to agree on the negotiating format. The deadline to begin is June 19, this date might be moved since it coincides with the Queen’s Speech, but EU is pressuring to begin that same week.

EU negotiating party

Led by former French foreign affairs minister Michel Barnier, an expert that had 9 months to prepare his position that united the interests of all 27 country union members.

Sabine Weyand is his deputy, a German trade expert well respected for her attention to detail and ability to keep focus on the bigger picture.

Brexit Negotiating Party

David Davis is the Brexit secretary and Oliver Robbins is the permanent secretary. But they are still to be announced as the official representative.

Simon Case, a senior civil servant, joined the team as a key member, but his role is still a mystery.

Theresa May stands in the mix as head of the negotiator team when she announced her involvement back in April. A confusing decision considering the long technical sessions that will take place in the EU embassy. Will she be able to manage as PM and lead negotiator at the same time?

All in all the Brexit team looks much unprepared for the upcoming negotiation with no room to postpone following their own commitment.

What will the negotiation be about?

The EU will maintain its negotiation terms already drafted in the past in terms of the Brexit divorce and consequent trade agreements.

Divorce first, new trade agreements second.

The divorce bill for exiting the club will be settled along with citizen border rights, including the Irish.

Only after this agreement will trade talks begin, scheduled for October.

How will this influence the UK elections?

They don´t according to the EU.

The EU remains firm in their negotiation guidelines, which are agreed unanimously by all 27 member countries.

The fear is that a weakened PM will not be able to find consensus with her party, especially if she remains reliant to the Brexit backing the Democratic Unionist party.

The EU team remains in the dark on what the UK really wants with the Brexit. Not a single position paper has been drafted and the elections keep the uncertainty.

Article 50

One of the most important aspects of the talks is Article 50. Co-written by British diplomat John Kerr, the article was intended to protect the EU member nations from the departing state, which leaves the UK at a disadvantage to claim a position.

Can the talks be extended?

With Theresa May’s weakened position the EU team will make it a priority not to postpone anything and make an agreement when they have the stronger hand.

The negotiations can only be postponed if the 27 member countries agree to do so. But the deadline for an agreement is mid-2019 before the EU parliament elections take place.

An extension for a few weeks might happen, but that is as much the Brexit team will get.

Will the Brexit create Ripple Effects?

There is already reinforced talks of a future Scottish independence vote. The Brexit empowers them to do the same. What other countries could follow the same steps to escape a sick EU?

William Hill’s political betting section has an interesting odds line up of the most probable countries to leave next. Greece suffered the most during the economic crisis while France has taken a new approach with a young leader.