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The Indian government bonds rallied Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data.
Also, on rising speculation that the Reserve Bank of India will lower its repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 percent in December drove traders towards safe-haven buying.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bonds, which moves inversely to its price, fell 8 basis points to 6.24 percent, the yield on long-term 30-year note dipped 8-1/2 basis points to 6.65 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year note slid 3-1/2 basis points to 6.04 percent by 07:00 GMT.
The RBI next bi-monthly two-day monetary policy meeting is scheduled to be held on December 6-7. It is widely expected that the current trend of lower inflation expectations will space for the Governor Urjit Patel for further monetary easing.
Moreover, India’s second-quarter GDP is due today at 12:00 GMT. We look for 7.5 percent y/y, from previous up 7.1 percent, which will imply 7.5 percent growth for the first three-quarters, said Commerzbank in its Wednesday’s currency briefing.
The RBI has placed a bit more emphasise on the GVA (gross value-added) measure of activity. GDP is equal to GVA plus indirect taxes minus subsidies. On a GVA basis, growth is seen around 7.2 percent y/y and at 7.3 percent year-to-date. However, the focus will be on the government’s projection for the expected dip in fourth-quarter due to the demonetization move, they added.
Lastly, the Indian bonds have been closely following developments in oil markets because of their impact on inflation expectations, as India imports 80 percent of its crude oil requirements.
Crude oil prices recovered ahead of OPEC ministerial gathering in Vienna today. The International benchmark Brent futures rose 1.92 percent to $48.15 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped 0.77 percent to $45.58 by 07:00 GMT.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is meeting officially in Vienna later in the day to discuss a planned production cut in an effort to curb overproduction that has dogged markets and more than halved prices since 2014.
There remains disagreement among OPEC-members over which producers should cut by how much, and a plan for non-OPEC oil giant Russia to participate has so far also failed.
Meanwhile, the Sensex rose 0.58 percent or 151.79 points to 26,545.80 and Nifty-50 futures traded 0.66 percent higher or 55.50 points at 8,231 by 07:30 GMT.
