India’s inflation to inch up a tad

India's headline CPI for September 2015 is expected to print at around 4.40% yoy, higher than the August 2015 CPI print of 3.66% yoy. The expected spike in inflation is due to the waning of the favourable base effect. It is believed that the sub-4% print (lowest inflation recorded as per the new series) in the previous two months is more of an anomaly and is the result of a favourable base effect rather than a reflection of reality. 

"We expect a pick-up in September and believe that momentum should persist going forward, especially given the potential impact of the weak monsoon on prices of pulses as well fruit and vegetables. Nevertheless, we are convinced that headline inflation will remain well within the RBI's immediate target of 6% by January 2016", says Societe Generale.