Indonesian Rupiah to strengthen on tax amnesty inflows

The Indonesian Rupiah strengthened to a six-month high against the US dollar on the back of higher tax amnesty inflows. The government has been optimistic about tax amnesty inflows and has approved a total of 21 banks, 18 investment management companies and 19 securities companies to act as gateways under the tax amnesty programme.

Last week, the ministry of finance said that revenues collected from the tax amnesty programme have totalled 48.5 trillion Indonesian Rupiah as of September 15th. Singapore remains the biggest source of tax amnesty inflows, accounting for 74.5 percent of total repatriated funds, as of September 15th. Last Friday, BI governor Martowardojo said that tax amnesty inflows worth 180 trillion Indonesian Rupiah would help the economy expand by 5.1-5.5 percent in 2017. Recall that BI expects the tax amnesty programme to result in repatriation inflows of almost 160 trillion Rupiah, as well as increase government revenues and support the government's capex programme.

Meanwhile, the government is expected to continue with structural reform. On Monday, coordinating minister for economic affairs Nasution said that the government plans to introduce 2-3 more policy packages covering e-commerce and housing before year-end. The government also plans to introduce a policy on permits to build low-income housing before a policy to regulate e-commerce. And BI has established a new department to execute monetary operations. The new department combines the existing divisions in charge of monetary operations, reserve management, global government bond management, treasury and the supply of foreign currency bills.

But government finances remain under pressure and the authorities are preparing to issue additional bonds worth 27 trillion Rupiah this year to bridge the widening budget gap, which is expected at around 2.7 percent of GDP in 2016. The government now expects gross bond sales for this year to be 655 trillion Indonesian Rupiah compared with a previous projection of 628 trillion Indonesian Rupiah. The administration has also been trying to boost tax revenues while ensuring that the economy does not slow further. Recently, finance minister Indrawati pointed out that the government is trying to restore confidence, saying that the lack of trust in the government is the main barrier to boosting the tax ratio.