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Recent financial market turmoil and lower price of commodities including energy has made it tough for US central bankers to go ahead with a rate hike in immediate policy meeting scheduled for September 16th/17th.
While survey based inflation expectation has remained stable, market bases measure has dropped to lowest level not seen since August 2010, when financial market was on its recovery from 2008/09 slump.
- Inflation expectations as measured by 5 year- 5 year (5y/5y) forward inflation expectation calculated using swap dropped to 1.87% as of Monday, a level not seen in 5 years.
With global energy and commodity prices at multi decade low, FED doves are going to argue strongly against a rate hike next month as lower inflation provides FED with opportunity to see further improvement in the economy as well as labor market.
Rise in global volatility has pushed investors to the safety of treasuries, which has pushed expectations of inflation down.
Sudden devaluation of Chinese currency by PBoC this month has opened up Pandora's Box of volatility and fear that China will be importing some of its deflation and volatility to the global market.
US benchmark stock index, S&P500 is still struggling to pose sustained comeback after Monday's aggressive selloff, currently trading at 1900.
