Is Donald Trump Good for Online Casinos in the USA?

Donald Trump’s election victory has polarised opinion in the US and around the world. Love him or hate him, it’s clear that US policy on a number of key areas could be heading in a different direction now that he is President. Online casino and gambling regulation is one area that could be set to shift, and some industry figures are predicting this spells good news for the industry. With a pro-trading agenda, and a personal track record in the casino industry, President Trump could ultimately end up changing the landscape for online casinos in the USA.

Traditionally, recent generations of US gamblers have been heavily restricted in their online gambling activities. Since 2006, legislation preventing payment processors from handling US online gambling transactions have made it considerably harder. But with the new Trump administration imminently set to take over the White House, and positive noises from Trump on online gambling in the past, could this be good news for gamblers and online casinos stateside?

Yes - Trump Will Be Great For Online Gambling

Trump’s election has been met with positivity from some sectors of the online gambling industry, who feel optimistic that their views are now being represented at the highest level. Some are suggesting that his election could signal a sea change in the approach to online gambling, in the direction of more liberal laws for US gamblers, which could see an explosion in growth for online gambling stateside.

Donald Trump is no stranger to the gambling industry. He opened his first casino at the Trump Plaza in Atlantic City in 1984, and subsequently bought major holdings in several other casinos and resorts across the country. In 2005, he opened an additional casino in Las Vegas, and has even been involved in a potential investment with online betting operator Betfair. Of course, not all of these investments have worked out for the better as far as Trump is concerned, but it’s difficult to infer he’s in any way opposed to the principle of gambling - either offline or online.

Trump has also invested in Poker Ventures LLC with Marc Lasry, a company which has positioned itself to take advantage of a future potential liberalisation of online poker laws - by its own stated aims, it’s preparing to act at a state or a federal level, depending on which of these sets of laws are relaxed first.

Trump himself has gone even further, telling Forbes “[Online gambling] has to occur because many other countries are performing it and like usual the US is just missing out.” If ever there was a signal of support for online gambling, this should surely be it.

Additionally, Trump’s inner circle includes New Jersey’s Chris Christie, who was involved in liberating gambling laws within New Jersey. While there’s nothing there that suggests Christie would be prepared to champion a relaxing of these laws at a federal level, it’s clear he also holds no moral opposition to the idea of a more liberal approach to online gambling nationwide, and he looks in line for some position within the Trump administration.

No - Trump Will Not Support Online Gambling

While Trump and some of his circle appear relaxed on the idea of online gambling, there are some names close to the President who have a more passionate opposition to any liberalisation of these restrictions. One of the key names is Sheldon Adelson, a casino magnate and significant financial backer of the Trump campaign. The CEO of Las Vegas Sands, an offline casino resort developer, Adelson has been a vocal proponent of the current approach to restricting online gambling - and with good commercial reason, given the competition this would pose to his business.

Trump is perhaps unlikely to alienate Adelson, who also holds a number of close contacts with other Trump insiders. Particularly at the outset of his presidency, Trump will be unlikely to use up political capital on crossing Adelson and those close to him, including Giuliani - another key Trump ally.

The Restoration of America’s Wire Act, which would extend the restrictions on online gambling, is still a live bill, with strong proponents in both Houses on the Republican side. While the bill has yet to find mainstream support, it’s clear that Trump would have a big task to head rapidly in the other direction.

Senator Lindsey Graham, having already adopted an aggressive stance towards Trump on a number of occasions, is a key champion of RAWA, and it may be politically challenging for Trump to overcome this type of opposition from within his own party. Likewise, opponents like Sen. Mitch McConnell and Rep. Jason Chaffetz are much more viscerally opposed to liberal gambling laws than Trump is enthusiastic about them, which perhaps puts limits on the credibility of any Trump boon for online gamblers and casinos.

While Trump himself is clearly in favour of online gambling, these hurdles do seem to make the prospect of any imminent change in the law appear slim.

So which way will it go?

It’s probably still too early to tell whether President Trump will be good for the state of online gambling in the US. While he has demonstrable personal support for gambling, as a one-time casino operator himself, predictions that this could translate into a tangible change in direction in the laws surrounding online gambling are a little premature. For sure, Trump approves of gambling in principle.

But whether or not he will choose to spend political capital on reversing these largely Republican-inspired laws remains to be seen, and given that there are a wide range of policies perceived as more important, it’s perhaps unlikely to change any time soon. At worst, it looks unlikely that Trump will make the situation more difficult for the average American gambler, given that RAWA is unlikely to gain sufficient support in the near future. But given his track record of pragmatism over honouring his pledges, and his somewhat unpredictable start to life in the White House, it’s still much too early to predict how this will play out.