Is Grexit almost confirmed? Keen eyes on Sunday's last call

The Euro summit presented two clear deadlines to Greece after an unconvincing Euro group meeting, Friday morning for a detailed proposal, and more importantly Sunday, to decide whether Greece will leave the euro area.

EU Commission President Juncker even mentioned that a Grexit scenario has been prepared - though reiterating that he was strongly in favour of keeping Greece in the euro area. Sunday's summit will be both a euro area and EU summit as the question on the table (Grexit) concerns all 28 Member States.

We cannot rule out a deal on Sunday but strong conditionality and commitment to reforms will be required. Bridge loans aimed at financing Greece over the next few months may be part of the deal but if and only if a medium-term solution is found.

Finally, any agreement on potential debt relief (more likely debt re-profiling) will only be decided in October, after all reforms have been adopted by the Greek Parliament. The latter condition will be extremely difficult for the Greek government. As a result, we stick to our scenario of 65% chance of Grexit.