Japan economic indicators disappoint, situation unlikely to improve

A survey by a local Japanese organization showed that key economic indicators suffered in the first two quarters of the year, with the headline indicator down 1.9 points to a 17-month low of 43.5, two points behind that of last quarter.

However, the latest disastrous earthquake at Kumamoto may have played sentiments but the weakness in the survey was broad based, with the household-related demand component surging more than 2pts to 42.2 and the non-manufacturing-related DI down more than 1pt to 45.5, both at near 2-year lows.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing-related index declined to its 4-year low of 1.3 points to 44.6. The survey also suggested that conditions were unlikely to improve over the coming months, with the headline outlook component down 1.2 points to 45.5, similarly its lowest level since 2014.

However, not all data for the Japanese economy disappointed markets. Bank lending figures came above expectations, with growth rising back to its 2012 level of 2.2 pct on year. The adjusted current account surplus came in at almost 6-year high of Y1.9 trillion, whereas the unadjusted current account balance rose to near a decade high of Y3.0 trillion.

Import figures for the first 20 days of April declined 20 pct as compared to a year ago period, while exports were down 10 pct in relation to the corresponding period a year ago, the steepest decline since Sep 2012. In lieu of this, Japan’s trade balance should continue to support sizeable current account surpluses over coming months, notwithstanding the higher oil price.

"With the full-year current account surplus in 2016 possibly set to surpass 4% of GDP for the first time since 2010, the stronger yen might well be here to stay," Bloomberg said in a research note.