Two Kalshi contracts show distinct expectations for an Anthropic IPO announcement: the short-term market stood near zero ahead of Nov. 1, while a separate year-end contract was at 75% on Oct. 19.
Kalshi’s short-term contract asks whether Anthropic makes an IPO announcement by Nov. 1. Its pricing implied little chance of that outcome for much of October. The market reading reflects participants’ expectations, not a statement from Anthropic.
The 75% figure belongs to a different contract, which tracks a qualifying announcement by the end of 2026. It does not represent a change in the short-term contract’s odds. EconoTimes previously covered the year-end contract’s 2026 reading.
Under the year-end contract’s rules, an effective Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Form S-1, a priced offering or an exchange ticker assignment can qualify. A confidential S-1 filing by itself does not meet the criteria. The Nov. 1 cutoff concerns an announcement; it does not set a date for shares to begin trading.
