Market prices put a 75% probability on the Federal Reserve's target range reaching 4%-4.25% at its Dec. 9 meeting, according to quotes from U.S. prediction exchange Kalshi.
That range is 25 basis points above the current 3.75%-4% target, which the Federal Reserve Bank of New York identified as current on Nov. 5. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its live-feed quotes were taken at 20:31:46 UTC on Nov. 8, with contract volume for the nearest meeting at about 4.5 million.
These are market prices, not a forecast or a survey. The probabilities describe where the target range would stand at each meeting, using a calculation that carries the pricing of successive decisions forward.
For December, the current 3.75%-4% band had a 22.1% probability. The next higher band, 4.25%-4.5%, had a 1.5% probability, while 3.5%-3.75% had 1% and 3.25%-3.5% had 0.5%.
The implied expected upper limit of the December target range was 4.19%. That figure is a probability-weighted average of possible upper limits, rather than a separate target band priced alongside the other outcomes.
For the Jan. 27, 2027, meeting, the 4%-4.25% range again carried the highest probability, at 60.4%. The current 3.75%-4% range had 19.3%, while 4.25%-4.5% had 16.4%.
The remaining January probabilities were 2% for 3.5%-3.75%, 1.4% for 4.5%-4.75% and 0.5% for 3.25%-3.5%. The implied expected upper limit was 4.24%, five basis points above December's.
The 4%-4.25% band therefore ranked first for both meetings, but January pricing gave more weight to the 4.25%-4.5% band. Its probability was 14.9 percentage points higher than in December.
For March 17, 2027, the 4%-4.25% band retained the largest probability at 41.6%, followed by 4.25%-4.5% at 32.3%. The current target band had a 14.1% probability.
The other March probabilities were 7.9% for 4.5%-4.75%, 2.7% for 3.5%-3.75%, 0.8% for 4.75%-5%, 0.6% for 3.25%-3.5% and 0.1% for 3%-3.25%. The implied expected upper limit was 4.32%.
Each meeting's market prices five decisions: cuts of 50 or 25 basis points, no change, or increases of 25 or 50 basis points. Chaining those probabilities from the current range produces the bands for successive meetings.
The current range's Nov. 5 reference date does not establish when the Fed last changed it. The date of that change was unavailable.
