Landscape for US durable goods orders to begin improving gradually

After two quarters of weakness, US durable goods orders are expected to show a bottoming in capex spending.  

The manufacturing ISM rose modestly in May and the diffusion index for new orders has now posted two back-to-back increases. This is consistent with analysts' view that the capex cuts in the oil & gas sector should begin to subside and fully dissipate during the summer months. 

Societe Generale projects a 0.8% m/m increase in total bookings in May and a 1.0% m/m rise in orders excluding transportation. The projections are consistent with the tentative signs of bottoming in the manufacturing sector observed in the survey data. 

"The drag from the dollar is likely to be more persistent, but on balance we look for a reacceleration in equipment spending growth in the second half of the year to about 5.8%, up from a 1.7% average over the past two quarters", added Societe Generale.