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Large declines in RBNZ interest rates over coming months?

Wednesday, July 29, 2015 3:53 AM UTC

Notably, the Governor had a pointed message for the market, "Some local commentators have predicted large declines in interest rates over coming months that could only be consistent with the economy moving into recession."

According to Westpac, this suggests two things:

The RBNZ is not inclined to move in increments of more than 25bps as per last week's OCR review

It doesn't currently expect to reduce the OCR much below its current level.

Financial markets were anticipating a less 'dovish' tone from today's speech in light of last week's OCR review, but seem to have been further surprised by the Governor's comments.

A low point is expected in the OCR of 2.00%. This view is not based on a forecast of recession, but on what will be needed to meet the RBNZ's inflation target over the medium term. The flow of information over the next few months will persuade the RBNZ to lower its interest rate projections further.

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Large declines in RBNZ interest rates over coming months?

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