CFTC commitment of traders report was released on Friday (1st April) and cover positions up to Tuesday (29th March). COT report is not a complete presenter of entire market positions, however it represents a good chunk of institutional traders, to feel what’s going on in capital markets and how big traders are aligned.
Kindly note in some cases numbers are rounded to nearest decimal.
- 2 year U.S. Treasury
Net short position increased by 1,821 contracts to -113.7K contracts. This implies that speculators are expecting bond price to go down and yields to go up, which is in line with hike expectations from FED.
- 5 year U.S. Treasury
Speculators reduced short position by 51, 428 contracts to -163.2K contracts. Faster rate hike bets are probably getting shortened.
- 10 year U.S. Treasury
Speculators increased net short position by 66,968 contracts and net position flipped from long to short to -16.9K contracts. Change is vital as 10 year yield this year dropped more than 40 basis points and this could be sign that tide may be turning.
- S&P 500 (E-mini)
Net short position got reduced by 24,332 contracts to -122.1K contracts, indicating speculators are betting S&P 500 will falter.
- Russell 2000
Similar S&P 500 like bets visible in Russell 2000. Speculators increased net short position 2,902 contracts to -63.6K contracts.
- MSCI Emerging Markets Mini Index
Speculators are long over emerging markets. Long positions were increased by 3,442 contracts and short position reduced by 10,760 contracts leading to +67.71K contracts.


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