Lending to UK households likely to have strengthened in April

While the UK business sentiment has been declining in recent months, lending to households has continued to bolster. Business confidence is possibly being impacted by referendum uncertainty. This paradox is partially explicated by the momentary strong stimulus to mortgage activity triggered by the race of buy-to-let landlords to finish the buying before the higher stamp duty came into effect on 1 April, noted Societe Generale in a research report.

The factor seems to have peaked now. In March, permit for mortgage declined and should have dropped again in April. But the consumer credit strength continues to accelerate. This is likely due to striking deals on finance for car. The trend is likely to continue to be solid; however, the rise of GBP 1.9 billion in March was possibly above the trend.

“We therefore predict a fall to a still-strong £1.7bn. it cannot be long before the Bank of England FPC decides to take action to cool this element of lending”, added Societe Generale.