Low growth and high fiscal deficit to weigh heavily on public debt in Brazil
Net and gross public debt rose from 33.6% and 56.7% of GDP respectively in December 2013 to 36.8% and 63.5% in December 2014. While net public debt declined moderately through February to 36.3%, gross public debt continu…
Net and gross public debt rose from 33.6% and 56.7% of GDP respectively in December 2013 to 36.8% and 63.5% in December 2014.
While net public debt declined moderately through February to 36.3%, gross public debt continued to rise and now stands at 65.5% of GDP (the recent rise is generally reflected in the BCB's repo operations).
Societe Generale Research forecasts that the public debt to GDP ratio will rise further given the high fiscal deficit and low GDP growth in Brazil.
While higher inflation could help keep the debt/GDP ratio in check in the near term, this could backfire if interest payment requirements rise due to high inflation and the resulting risk of additional monetary tightening (that should keep yields under pressure - at least in the near term), added the report.
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