Low oil prices, weaker euro likely to lift German industrial ouput
German industrial production in January was up by 0.6% compared with the previous month (consensus: 0.5%). At the same time, data for the preceding month was revised up by nearly one percentage point to 1.0%. The good ou…
German industrial production in January was up by 0.6% compared with the previous month (consensus: 0.5%). At the same time, data for the preceding month was revised up by nearly one percentage point to 1.0%.
The good outturn was owed to the strong increase of 5% in construction output, which benefitted from the mild winter weather. In the narrow sense, industrial production was flat compared with December.
Commerzbank notes in a report on Friday:
In the months ahead, low oil prices and the weaker euro are likely to provide a further lift to industrial output. Against this backdrop, we have raised our 2015 growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.8%.
However, the setback of January order intake which is on a rising trend indicates that too much euphoria is not warranted.
Low oil prices and the weaker euro should further stimulate industrial output. Thus, the real external value of a statistical D-Mark is currently down more than 5% from a year ago.
Against this backdrop, we have raised our 2015 growth forecast for the German economy from 1.5% to 1.8%.
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