October polls show Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins in a close Maine reelection race with Democratic nominee Troy D. Jackson, reviving attention to her 2020 polling record.
Marist's Oct. 1-4 survey of 1,505 registered voters gave Jackson 51% and Collins 47%, with a ±3.8-point margin of error. The Washington Post-Schar School poll, fielded Sept. 30-Oct. 5 among 800 likely voters, put Jackson at 50% and Collins at 46%; its margin of error was ±3.6 points. Suffolk University found Jackson at 49%, Collins at 47% and 4% undecided among 500 likely voters surveyed Oct. 8-11. The poll had a ±4.4-point margin of error, and Suffolk described the race as statistically tied. CBS News/YouGov found a tie among 1,144 registered voters polled Sept. 23-Oct. 1, with a ±4.7-point margin of error.
The surveys use different samples and field dates, complicating direct comparisons.
Emerson College's final 2020 survey, conducted Oct. 29-31 among 611 likely voters, put Democrat Sara Gideon at 48% and Collins at 42%. Emerson reported a credibility interval of ±3.9 percentage points. Official U.S. House Clerk results show Collins received 417,645 votes and Gideon received 347,223, a difference of 70,422.
On June 1, Nate Silver wrote in Silver Bulletin that Republicans had averaged an advantage of about four points over polls in Maine races since 2014 when at least two surveys were conducted during the final three weeks. He applied that historical analysis to a possible Collins contest with Graham Platner, before Maine's June 9 Democratic primary. Platner won the primary, then withdrew on July 10. The Maine Secretary of State's replacement list names Jackson as the nominee and records his nomination as received July 27.
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center, said Collins had “eroded Democratic support for Jackson just enough to keep the race close.” Maine's general election is scheduled for Nov. 3.
