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The GBP/JPY currency pair has recently reached a significant multi-month high, primarily influenced by the strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY). At the time of writing, the pair hit a low of 188.47 and is currently trading at approximately 189.89. Notably, the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) is set at 200.20, indicating levels where traders may anticipate a potential price reversal.
Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Safe-Haven Demand
Rising geopolitical tensions and tariff threats from former President Trump are driving investors toward safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen. Despite the low U.S. bond yields—often a supportive factor for the JPY—the yen is currently showing signs of weakness against the U.S. Dollar (USD), testing the critical 150.00 level. Traders remain cautious and focused on upcoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve statements, which could significantly influence future currency movements. While the yen retains some supportive conditions, it continues to exhibit slight weakness against the dollar.
Technical Snapshot: Bull or Bear?
From a technical standpoint, the GBP/JPY is trading below both short-term and long-term moving averages, a clear indication of a prevailing downtrend. The immediate resistance level stands at 190.60. A breakout above this threshold could lead to further gains toward levels of 191.50, 192, 192.47, 193, 193.35, 193.80, and 194.15. On the downside, support is positioned at 189.40, with additional levels of interest at 189, 188.50, 186.79, and 183 should the price fall further.
Indicator Insights: Bearish Signals Abound
Analysis of key indicators such as the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Average Directional Index (ADX) suggests a strong bearish trend in the market. These signals reinforce the notion of a potential decline in the GBP/JPY pair.
Trading Strategy: Sell on Rallies
Considering the current technical and fundamental landscape, traders may want to adopt a strategy that involves selling on rallies around the 190.67-70 mark, establishing a stop-loss (SL) around 191.30. The anticipated target prices for this approach could be 188.35 and 186.85, aligning with the pair's bearish outlook.
