Trump Lifts 25% Tariff on Indian Goods in Strategic U.S.–India Trade and Energy Deal 
Gold Prices Slide Below $5,000 as Strong Dollar and Central Bank Outlook Weigh on Metals 
Fed Governor Lisa Cook Warns Inflation Risks Remain as Rates Stay Steady 
Dollar Steadies Ahead of ECB and BoE Decisions as Markets Turn Risk-Off 
Oil Prices Slip as U.S.–Iran Talks Ease Supply Disruption Fears 
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as India’s Growth Outlook Strengthens After U.S. Trade Deal 
Oil Prices Slide on US-Iran Talks, Dollar Strength and Profit-Taking Pressure 
Silver Prices Plunge in Asian Trade as Dollar Strength Triggers Fresh Precious Metals Sell-Off 
Thailand Inflation Remains Negative for 10th Straight Month in January 
Japan Economy Poised for Q4 2025 Growth as Investment and Consumption Hold Firm 
Global Markets Slide as AI, Crypto, and Precious Metals Face Heightened Volatility 
Gold and Silver Prices Slide as Dollar Strength and Easing Tensions Weigh on Metals 
Trump Endorses Japan’s Sanae Takaichi Ahead of Crucial Election Amid Market and China Tensions 
Japanese Pharmaceutical Stocks Slide as TrumpRx.gov Launch Sparks Market Concerns 
Asian Stocks Slip as Tech Rout Deepens, Japan Steadies Ahead of Election 
Vietnam’s Trade Surplus With US Jumps as Exports Surge and China Imports Hit Record 
Trump Signs Executive Order Threatening 25% Tariffs on Countries Trading With Iran 
Market Impact of Trump's Rising Odds
The increasing betting odds of a Donald Trump victory have resulted in gains for US equities, yields, and the dollar. Conversely, Europe-focused and tariff-sensitive market segments have struggled to keep pace.
Despite these market movements, polls reveal a tightly contested race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Analysts expect a divided Congress, with Republicans likely to retain the Senate and Democrats favored to reclaim the House. According to Barclays strategists, a divided government appears to be the most probable outcome, countering the "Redsweep" scenario the markets are currently pricing in.
Upcoming Election Risks
“Given the event risk and the close nature of the race, market jitters are expected leading up to the vote,” Barclays stated. Historically, global equity markets experience a rally post-election, driven primarily by sectors like Cyclicals and Value.
The impending vote may act as a catalyst for heightened risk-taking and capital rotation, especially into European equities as we approach 2025. However, any delay in announcing a winner could induce volatility in the markets.
Outcomes of the Election
Betting markets currently favor a Republican sweep, which may bolster US equities through potential tax cuts, while negatively impacting bonds due to inflation concerns. A split Congress under Harris might ease tariff risks and stabilize the market, a scenario Barclays views as favorable for European equities.
In contrast, if Trump wins but faces a divided Congress, stricter tariff and immigration policies could harm US equities and pose significant challenges for European markets.
Conclusion
In summary, the upcoming elections could significantly impact market dynamics. A Trump victory may bring volatility and opportunities, while a Harris win could stabilize tariffs and benefit European equities.
