Bank of Korea Downplays Liquidity’s Role in Weak Won and Housing Price Surge 
Asian Currencies Slip as Dollar Strengthens; Indian Rupee Rebounds on Intervention Hopes 
Gold and Silver Prices Dip as Markets Await Key U.S. Economic Data 
Wall Street Futures Slip as Tech Stocks Struggle Ahead of Key US Economic Data 
U.S. Dollar Slips Near Two-Month Low as Markets Await Key Jobs Data and Central Bank Decisions 
BoE Set to Cut Rates as UK Inflation Slows, but Further Easing Likely Limited 
New Zealand Budget Outlook Shows Prolonged Deficits Despite Economic Recovery Hopes 
Korea Zinc to Build $7.4 Billion Critical Minerals Refinery in Tennessee With U.S. Government Backing 
Silver Prices Hit Record High as Safe-Haven Demand Surges Amid U.S. Economic Uncertainty 
U.S. Stock Futures Edge Higher as Micron Earnings Boost AI Sentiment Ahead of CPI Data 
Chinese Robotaxi Stocks Rally as Tesla Boosts Autonomous Driving Optimism 
RBA Unlikely to Cut Interest Rates in 2026 as Inflation Pressures Persist, Says Westpac 
Oil Prices Slip in Asia as 2026 Supply Glut Fears and Russia-Ukraine Talks Weigh on Markets 
Japan PMI Data Signals Manufacturing Stabilization as Services Continue to Drive Growth 
Asian Fund Managers Turn More Optimistic on Growth but Curb Equity Return Expectations: BofA Survey 
U.S. Dollar Steadies Near October Lows as Rate Cut Expectations Keep Markets on Edge 
Market Impact of Trump's Rising Odds
The increasing betting odds of a Donald Trump victory have resulted in gains for US equities, yields, and the dollar. Conversely, Europe-focused and tariff-sensitive market segments have struggled to keep pace.
Despite these market movements, polls reveal a tightly contested race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Analysts expect a divided Congress, with Republicans likely to retain the Senate and Democrats favored to reclaim the House. According to Barclays strategists, a divided government appears to be the most probable outcome, countering the "Redsweep" scenario the markets are currently pricing in.
Upcoming Election Risks
“Given the event risk and the close nature of the race, market jitters are expected leading up to the vote,” Barclays stated. Historically, global equity markets experience a rally post-election, driven primarily by sectors like Cyclicals and Value.
The impending vote may act as a catalyst for heightened risk-taking and capital rotation, especially into European equities as we approach 2025. However, any delay in announcing a winner could induce volatility in the markets.
Outcomes of the Election
Betting markets currently favor a Republican sweep, which may bolster US equities through potential tax cuts, while negatively impacting bonds due to inflation concerns. A split Congress under Harris might ease tariff risks and stabilize the market, a scenario Barclays views as favorable for European equities.
In contrast, if Trump wins but faces a divided Congress, stricter tariff and immigration policies could harm US equities and pose significant challenges for European markets.
Conclusion
In summary, the upcoming elections could significantly impact market dynamics. A Trump victory may bring volatility and opportunities, while a Harris win could stabilize tariffs and benefit European equities.
