Thailand Inflation Remains Negative for 10th Straight Month in January 
Gold and Silver Prices Rebound After Volatile Week Triggered by Fed Nomination 
Gold Prices Slide Below $5,000 as Strong Dollar and Central Bank Outlook Weigh on Metals 
Fed Governor Lisa Cook Warns Inflation Risks Remain as Rates Stay Steady 
South Korea Assures U.S. on Trade Deal Commitments Amid Tariff Concerns 
Dollar Steadies Ahead of ECB and BoE Decisions as Markets Turn Risk-Off 
South Korea’s Weak Won Struggles as Retail Investors Pour Money Into U.S. Stocks 
China Extends Gold Buying Streak as Reserves Surge Despite Volatile Prices 
Global Markets Slide as AI, Crypto, and Precious Metals Face Heightened Volatility 
Bank of Japan Signals Readiness for Near-Term Rate Hike as Inflation Nears Target 
U.S. Stock Futures Edge Higher as Tech Rout Deepens on AI Concerns and Earnings 
Oil Prices Slide on US-Iran Talks, Dollar Strength and Profit-Taking Pressure 
Dow Hits 50,000 as U.S. Stocks Stage Strong Rebound Amid AI Volatility 
Trump Lifts 25% Tariff on Indian Goods in Strategic U.S.–India Trade and Energy Deal 
Trump Endorses Japan’s Sanae Takaichi Ahead of Crucial Election Amid Market and China Tensions 
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as India’s Growth Outlook Strengthens After U.S. Trade Deal 
Market Impact of Trump's Rising Odds
The increasing betting odds of a Donald Trump victory have resulted in gains for US equities, yields, and the dollar. Conversely, Europe-focused and tariff-sensitive market segments have struggled to keep pace.
Despite these market movements, polls reveal a tightly contested race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Analysts expect a divided Congress, with Republicans likely to retain the Senate and Democrats favored to reclaim the House. According to Barclays strategists, a divided government appears to be the most probable outcome, countering the "Redsweep" scenario the markets are currently pricing in.
Upcoming Election Risks
“Given the event risk and the close nature of the race, market jitters are expected leading up to the vote,” Barclays stated. Historically, global equity markets experience a rally post-election, driven primarily by sectors like Cyclicals and Value.
The impending vote may act as a catalyst for heightened risk-taking and capital rotation, especially into European equities as we approach 2025. However, any delay in announcing a winner could induce volatility in the markets.
Outcomes of the Election
Betting markets currently favor a Republican sweep, which may bolster US equities through potential tax cuts, while negatively impacting bonds due to inflation concerns. A split Congress under Harris might ease tariff risks and stabilize the market, a scenario Barclays views as favorable for European equities.
In contrast, if Trump wins but faces a divided Congress, stricter tariff and immigration policies could harm US equities and pose significant challenges for European markets.
Conclusion
In summary, the upcoming elections could significantly impact market dynamics. A Trump victory may bring volatility and opportunities, while a Harris win could stabilize tariffs and benefit European equities.
