Gold Prices Slip as Stronger Dollar and Iran Peace Talk Uncertainty Weigh on Market 
UK Grocery Inflation Slows to 3.1% as Supermarket Price Pressures Ease in May 2026 
US Launches New Trade Investigation Into Vietnam Over Intellectual Property Concerns 
Dollar Gains Slightly as U.S.-Iran Tensions Keep Forex Markets on Edge 
Oil Prices Set for Sharp Weekly Losses as U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Hopes Ease Supply Concerns 
Nikkei Hits Record High as AI Chip Stocks Power Japan Market Rally 
Asian Markets Slide as New U.S. Strikes on Iran Spark Investor Caution 
Asian Stocks Rally as AI Boom and Iran Ceasefire Progress Lift Market Sentiment 
Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks Remain Unresolved as Strait of Hormuz Risks Keep Markets on Edge 
U.S. Sanctions Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Authority as Global Oil Markets Face Turmoil 
Wall Street Reaches New Record Highs as AI Boom and Iran Ceasefire Hopes Boost Markets 
Gold Prices Hold Near Record Levels as Inflation Concerns Offset Middle East Ceasefire Hopes 
Asian Currencies Steady as U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Extension Hopes Weigh on Dollar 
US Dollar Slips as Markets Weigh Potential US-Iran Peace Deal and Oil Price Outlook 
Wall Street Hits New Highs as U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Talks Boost Market Sentiment 
Canada and Germany Advance Major LNG Supply Partnership 
Market Impact of Trump's Rising Odds
The increasing betting odds of a Donald Trump victory have resulted in gains for US equities, yields, and the dollar. Conversely, Europe-focused and tariff-sensitive market segments have struggled to keep pace.
Despite these market movements, polls reveal a tightly contested race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Analysts expect a divided Congress, with Republicans likely to retain the Senate and Democrats favored to reclaim the House. According to Barclays strategists, a divided government appears to be the most probable outcome, countering the "Redsweep" scenario the markets are currently pricing in.
Upcoming Election Risks
“Given the event risk and the close nature of the race, market jitters are expected leading up to the vote,” Barclays stated. Historically, global equity markets experience a rally post-election, driven primarily by sectors like Cyclicals and Value.
The impending vote may act as a catalyst for heightened risk-taking and capital rotation, especially into European equities as we approach 2025. However, any delay in announcing a winner could induce volatility in the markets.
Outcomes of the Election
Betting markets currently favor a Republican sweep, which may bolster US equities through potential tax cuts, while negatively impacting bonds due to inflation concerns. A split Congress under Harris might ease tariff risks and stabilize the market, a scenario Barclays views as favorable for European equities.
In contrast, if Trump wins but faces a divided Congress, stricter tariff and immigration policies could harm US equities and pose significant challenges for European markets.
Conclusion
In summary, the upcoming elections could significantly impact market dynamics. A Trump victory may bring volatility and opportunities, while a Harris win could stabilize tariffs and benefit European equities.
