Meta Reportedly Developing ‘Arena’ Prediction Market App to Rival Polymarket and Kalshi

Meta Platforms is reportedly exploring the fast-growing prediction market sector with a new standalone application internally known as “Arena,” according to a report by The New York Times. The project, which is said to have been initiated by Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, aims to capitalize on the rising popularity of event-based forecasting platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

Sources familiar with the matter told the publication that Meta has assembled a small team to develop the app. Unlike traditional prediction market platforms that allow users to wager real money, Arena is expected to initially operate using a points-based system similar to those found in video games. However, the possibility of introducing real-money betting features in the future has reportedly not been ruled out.

Meta has not publicly commented on the report, and Reuters noted that it was unable to independently verify the claims.

Prediction markets have gained significant traction in recent years, particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. These platforms enable users to speculate on the outcomes of various events, including political developments, economic decisions, and major sporting competitions. The sector has attracted growing interest from investors and trading platforms, with companies such as Robinhood and Interactive Brokers launching event-based contracts.

According to the report, Arena would operate independently from Meta’s core social media ecosystem, including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. Nevertheless, Meta is expected to leverage its massive user base to drive adoption. The company reported 3.56 billion daily active users across its family of apps in April, providing a substantial audience for potential growth.

Arena is reportedly one of several experimental standalone applications under development at Meta. Another project, called Meta Photos, is said to focus on generating new forms of digital media.

Analysts remain bullish on the future of prediction markets. Bernstein estimated in April that the industry could reach $1 trillion in annual trading volume by the end of the decade. However, the sector has also faced increased regulatory scrutiny, particularly over concerns that certain traders may have profited significantly from well-timed bets linked to major policy announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump.