Mexico GDP likely to post 2.5pct growth in 2015

Industrial production in Mexico posted a negative growth of 0.1% month on month sa in October. In annual term, the output increased by 1.2% year on year.

The negative growth in monthly industrial output of the economy is mainly driven by the mining production, which is contracted by 0.6%. On the other hand, manufacturing output posted a moderate growth rate of 0.1% m/m.

The slower growth rate in manufacturing sector is expected to continue in Q4, 2015 and early 2016. As a result, the overall GDP growth rate of the economy will be slow down during the same periods. However, the domestic consumption is likely to lead the economic growth of Mexico in the quarters to come.

"After this report, we estimate that the economy should report a 0.0% m/m sa growth in October, in line with our expected 0.4% q/q sa expansion in Q4 and a 2.5% annual growth in GDP for the full year", estimates Barclays.