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Market Roundup
•US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) -0.3%, 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) -0.6%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Retail Control (MoM) (Jul) -0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Jul) -0.2%, 0.4% previous
•US Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 5.01%, 6.75% previous
•US Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jun) 2.8%, 2.7% forecast, -0.3% previous
•US Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 1.6% previous
•US Capacity Utilization Rate (Jun) 82.3%, 82.5% previous
•Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jun) 2.8%, 2.7% forecast, -0.3% previous
•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug) 4.3%, 4.2% previous
•US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug) 3.3%, 3.3% previous
•US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 51.0, 54.7 forecast, 55.2 previous
•US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Aug) 50.6, 55.2 forecast, 55.4 previous
•US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jun) -0.4%, -0.2% previous
•US Business Inventories (MoM) (Jun) 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Michigan Current Conditions (Aug) 51.8, 55.0 forecast, 54.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Friday after data showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly declined in July weighing on dollar. Retail sales dropped 0.6% last month after an unrevised 0.2% gain in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, edging up 0.1%.Softer-than-expected consumer and producer price inflation data this week has already tempered expectations that the Fed will raise rates at its September 15-16 meeting. Traders are now pricing in just a 31% probability of a September hike, alongside a 69% chance of a rate increase by December. Concerns over the labor market have deepened as well, after July's payrolls report showed employers unexpectedly shed jobs last month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1574(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1625(June 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1525(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1477(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound climbed to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar on Friday, extending its recent gains as broad-based weakness in the greenback continued to support sterling. GBP/USD was also helped by stronger-than-expected UK economic data, with the economy growing 0.3% in June.The dollar came under fresh pressure after U.S. retail sales unexpectedly declined 0.6% month-on-month in July, compared with expectations for a 0.1% increase. The weak reading raised concerns about consumer demand and added to signs of softer U.S. economic momentum.Attention now turns to next week’s UK economic calendar, particularly inflation and labour-market data. These releases could provide fresh clues about the strength of the British economy and influence expectations for the Bank of England’s future policy path.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3561(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3612(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3861(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards1.3820(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Fridayas loonie was supported by firmer oil prices and stronger-than-expected domestic economic data. Canadian manufacturing sales rose 0.1% in June, marking a fifth consecutive monthly increase, while sales volumes climbed 1.2%. Wholesale trade also increased 2.8%, pointing to continued resilience in the Canadian economy.Higher oil prices provided additional support for the commodity-linked loonie. Crude prices rose amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and concerns that a prolonged naval blockade could disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz.Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar came under pressure after U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% in July, compared with expectations for a 0.1% increase. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3953(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4025(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3853(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3820(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially dipped but recovered ground on Friday as the impact of recent U.S.-Japan currency intervention continued to fade. The yen has given back roughly half of its intervention-driven gains, leaving traders increasingly focused on the possibility of further official action or faster Bank of Japan rate hikes to stabilize the currency.The BOJ is reportedly considering raising interest rates as early as September, with policymakers also discussing a faster pace of tightening. The central bank has raised rates roughly twice a year since ending its decade-long stimulus program in 2024, taking its policy rate to 1% in June, the highest level in 31 years.The yen had fallen to around 164 per dollar before July’s intervention and has since weakened back toward 160, a level traders view as a potential trigger for renewed official intervention. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.62 (Aug 14th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.54(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 157.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares finished lower on Friday, snapping a four-week winning streak as rising oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment..
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.21 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.53percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.16 percent.
The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday, retreating from its record high as investors digested weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.20% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.17% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.28% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Friday and was set for a weekly gain, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged next month after in-line U.S. inflation data.
Spot gold was up 0.7% at $4,379.95 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. EDT (1740 GMT). Prices declined 1.3% in the previous session on profit-taking after touching their highest level since June 5. Bullion is up around 0.9% for the week so far.
Crude oil futures rose more than $1 a barrel on Friday, driven by tanker attacks and stalled peace efforts between the Trump administration and Iran.
Brent futures settled at $88.52 a barrel, up $1.45, or 1.67%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $82.40, up $1.15, or 1.42%.
