Mexico's consumer confidence index likely to move back

Mexico's consumer confidence index for September is scheduled to release tomorrow.

After a surprise uptick in June, consumer confidence index of Mexico struggled to gain ground in July and August. This appears to be a pay-back from the June surprise and confidence is expected to have moved back to 91.5 in September from 90.4 in August, says Societe Generale. 

In fact, there is little reason to see why confidence should continue to hover below 2012 levels when the unemployment rate has resumed its decline and the low inflation has led to a pick-up in retail sales. 

The Mexican consumer confidence has hardly moved over past year or so and it would probably require further growth acceleration and strong wage growth to see confidence coming back to the levels seen in 2012-13. A stronger confidence level would require the unemployment rate to fall to full employment levels.