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Middle East oil exports are moving closer to pre-war levels, but record tanker rates, vessel shortages and disruptions around major shipping routes continue to put pressure on global energy markets, according to PVM Oil Associates, part of TP ICAP Group.
Regional oil exports recovered to an estimated 80% of pre-war volumes in September, averaging about 12.8 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia’s exports climbed to roughly 6 million barrels per day, bringing shipments closer to their 2025 monthly average.
Iraq has also increased supply, with production rising to 3.5 million barrels per day in August as exports through the country’s southern terminals improved.
However, the recovery increasingly depends on complicated shipping arrangements designed to reduce exposure to the Strait of Hormuz. Ship-to-ship transfers have become an important workaround, with tankers loading crude inside the Gulf and transferring cargo near Sohar in Oman or Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, outside the strait.
About 2.5 million barrels per day were expected to move through ship-to-ship transfers in September, sharply higher than 1.4 million barrels per day in August.
The strategy requires additional vessels and increases chartering and insurance expenses. The International Maritime Organization has verified 80 attacks on merchant ships around Hormuz since the conflict began on February 28, with at least 22 seafarers killed.
Tanker supply has consequently tightened. Daily charter rates for very large crude carriers departing from inside the Gulf and passing through Hormuz have surged to record levels of between $1 million and $1.27 million, according to LSEG data cited in the report.
Higher transportation costs are spreading beyond crude oil. Spot container shipping rates between the Far East and northern Europe have jumped 85% since the Iran war began, reaching an average of $4,100.
Meanwhile, global floating oil storage has dropped from 145 million barrels in April to about 88 million barrels as vessels become more valuable for transporting cargo.
Despite recovering Middle East oil exports, limited tanker availability and elevated freight costs remain significant constraints, keeping shipping disruptions a major source of pressure for global oil markets.
