Mixed data will provide little stimulus for AUD

Barclays notes:

• Data this week is likely to be mixed. We expect a further correction in May building approvals on Wednesday (Barclays -1% m/m. cf. 1.4% m/m) given approvals look to us to have run ahead of other partial indicators. 
  
  
• In contrast, we look for retail sales (Friday) to resume growing at a modest rate (Barclays 0.6% m/m, consensus 0.4% m/m) given private-sector measures of sales remain buoyant. 
  
  
• The news on the trade deficit (Thursday) should also be better and we look for a sharp improvement in May (Barclays AUD -2.5bn, cf. AUD -2.2bn) mainly due to lower imports. 
  
  
• RBA Governor Stevens is speaking on Tuesday at a central bank think-tank in London, although we suspect the main focus will not be on the Australian economy.  
  
  
• We doubt data and Stevens will provide support for the AUD, with the currency likely to move lower over the coming days and months