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The Netherlands' Aaa rating with a stable outlook is based on its highly competitive, diversified and open economy, high level of wealth, sound institutional framework, and track record of reform-oriented and prudent fiscal policies, says Moody's Investors Service in its new annual Netherlands Credit Analysis.
Moody's report is available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press release. The rating agency's report is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.
"The Netherlands' economic growth is picking up and becoming increasingly broad-based, supported by domestic demand as well as increasing net exports. Consumer and business confidence is rising as a result of improving conditions in the housing and labour markets," says Thorsten Nestmann, an analyst at Moody's. "We forecast a real GDP growth rate of around 1.7% on average per year between 2015-18."
In addition, given the high openness of the Dutch economy, domestic sentiment and exports are also supported by the strengthening global economy, says Moody's. Dutch exports have also benefited from the weaker euro.
The Netherlands' key credit challenge is related to the high stock of private sector debt, mainly in the mortgages segment, which will continue to weigh on consumption, says Moody's. Furthermore, the reform momentum in the coming two years might decline given that recent provincial elections will likely lead to changing majorities in the upper house, according to Moody's.
Moody's expects the Netherlands' budget deficit to decline this year to 1.8% of GDP and further to 1.2% of GDP in 2016. In 2014, the Netherlands posted a general government budget deficit of 2.3% of GDP in 2014, which was significantly lower than the initial target of 2.9%.
Furthermore, the rating agency expects that the Netherlands' debt-to-GDP ratio - which is lower than in many other large euro area countries, but above the Maastricht threshold of 60% - will decline very gradually to 67.8 in 2016, from 68.8% in 2014.
