The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sees drought easing this winter across several southern U.S. regions, while warning that heavy rain on dry soil could trigger flash floods and mudslides.
Issued Oct. 15, NOAA’s outlook covers December 2026 through February 2027. Its temperature forecast favors above-average readings across the northern United States, while precipitation odds lean higher from the Southwest through the southern tier and along the East Coast. NOAA also sees a greater chance of drier-than-usual conditions in portions of the northern Mountain West and Great Lakes region. Florida and parts of the Southeast have the strongest odds of near-normal temperatures. NOAA’s temperature and precipitation departures use 1991-2020 climate normals.
El Niño is part of the explanation. NOAA describes it as the warm phase of a natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific. The agency says a very strong event is likely to shift the jet stream south and east over the contiguous United States, raising the odds of stormier conditions in the South. Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said decades of observations inform the outlook and that a strong event can bring “stormier weather across the South.”
In an Oct. 8 diagnostic, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center put the chance of strong-to-very-strong El Niño conditions lasting through January-March 2027 above 83%. It also estimated an 83% chance the event would meet NOAA’s “historic” strength threshold during October-December 2026: a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index value of at least +2.5°C. These figures are probabilities; they do not confirm that the threshold has been reached.
NOAA expects drought to improve or end by January in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast. It also sees drought developing or worsening in parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington. The agency warns that heavy precipitation on dry soil can cause flash floods and mudslides.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is due to issue its next monthly ENSO outlook Nov. 12.
